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"Establishing a Successful Currency Union" - 2004
This GRC Research Paper looks at the outstanding monetary union preperations as well as the potential implications of a single GCC currency.
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IMF: "A Case for 'Gulfstat'" - 2006
This IMF paper argues that to monitor convergence and support economic and monetary policy, collating comparable economic data for GCC states and data for the region as a whole will be essential.
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ECB "Regional Monetary Integration in the GCC" - 2005
This paper focuses on selected macroeconomic and institutional issues and key policy choices which are likely to arise during the process of monetary integration.
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IMF "On a Common Currency for the GCC Countries" - 2002
This paper assesses the eventual replacment of the GCC currencies with a single one; scheduled for 2010.
Download (627kb) 

IMF "Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Growth" - 2002
This paper argues that despite some economic diversification the region's governments still play a dominant role.
Download (1.01mb) 



GCC Currency Crunch
Oman's decision to pull out of the GCC single currency plan has all but scuppered the project's chances of hitting its 2010 deadline. To some, this is a relief ... read more


Single Currency at a Crossroads
Oman's decision to opt out of the GCC currency union was undoubtedly a political setback, but Kuwait's unilateral decision to revert back to an undisclosed basket peg represents a potentially far more complicated technical obstacle ... read more


Gulf monetary union is a cracking project?
Oman's decision to separate from the 2010 GCC Currency Union project is indicative of pressures ... read more


An inconvenient truth
A historical analysis of GCC economic performance reveals little evidence of any economic convergence taking place ... read more

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"This book comes at a crucial and timely moment. Changes in the balance of global economic power, and the huge wealth being accumulated by Gulf states, mean that an effective Gulf Monetary Union would have far-reaching effects on the global economy. Rutledge’s careful analysis of the prospects and requirements is exactly what is needed."

Timothy Niblock, Professor, Institute of Arabic and Islamic Studies, Exeter University, UK

"The book is as excellent as it is timely...It is destined to become a classic and is required reading for all those interested in exchange rate issues in resourcebased economies, a category that is rather wider than the GCC."

Willem H. Buiter, Professor of European Political Economy, European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK

Click here to go to the publisher's site: www.routledge.co.uk

This newly published book is one of only a handfull that focuses specifically on the economies of the GCC states:

Monetary Union in the Gulf: Prospects for a Single Currency in the Arabian Peninsula

At a time of momentous shifts in the balance of world economic forces epitomized by the current oil price boom, the weakening US dollar and the global credit crunch; the meteoric rise of the Arabian Peninsula cannot be understated. Neither, therefore, can their planned monetary union. As key suppliers of the world’s oil and gas the Gulf states have accumulated vast wealth: taken together their sovereign wealth funds are by far the world’s largest and the influence of these funds is becoming increasingly apparent. This book provides a thorough analysis of the scheduled 2010 monetary union. Its findings are based on both primary research and a detailed empirical analysis of the region’s economies spanning 1980-2006. It assesses the region against optimal currency area criteria, the European criteria, highlights outstanding preparations and considers the underlying economic and political factors that may aid or indeed delay the launch date. Critically this book argues that the present dollar-peg exchange rate regimes are no longer optimal. The future Gulf dinar is likely to seek a more independent path. The ramifications of this - a potential Islamic anchor currency and an alternative oil-invoicing currency - are also considered in some detail.

The author, Emilie Rutledge, is Assistant Professor of Economics at the United Arab Emirates National University. She regularly contributes articles and opinion pieces on GCC economic issues to the regional press. Previously she worked as an economist at the Gulf Research Center, a Dubai-based think tank.